2015 HSC Economics Exam Question Predictions

Short Answers	2015年预测
1	Globalization
2	Microeconomic Reform
3	Inflation
4	Monetary
可能的：	Exchange Rates
Essays	2015年预测
1	Fiscal Policy- 生态增长和u/e重点
2	汇率 - 折旧的影响
3	CAD＆BOP - 原因和后果
4	全球化/自由贸易和对AUS经济的影响
可能的：	国际组织 - 全球化的角色

What’s our rationale for these HSC Economics exam predictions?

Essays

1. Fiscal Policy – Eco Growth & Unemployment Focus

• 宏观经济政策被提出，因为在过去的8年中，一篇文章被要求进行7篇文章。这是课程的很大组成部分，每年的政策改变是动态的。

• With the Budget being controversial under Liberal government it’s remained a very topical issue. Fiscal was examined in 2014 but it was combined withLabour Market reformand it’s focus was on income distribution.

• 给出Monetary policyhas hardly moved in the last 18 months it makes sense a focus is placed on Fiscal. Additionally, Fiscal hasn’t been specifically asked on it’s own since 2011.

• Why economic growth and unemployment? Firstly they are both growing issues for Australian economy. Secondly, UE is examined pretty much every year alternating between SA and Essays.

• 在2014年，它被检查为SA，使其在论文问题中的出现很可能。通常每2年检查一次经济增长，并且未在2014年论文中进行检查。

2. Exchange Rates – Impact of Sustained Depreciation

• 在过去的24个月中，澳大利亚经历了$ aud的持续折旧，随着我们的采矿业的缩小，由于全球需求下降，我们的采矿业缩水可能会持续下去。

• 这是一个主题问题，仅在2008年，2011年和2013年才被作为一篇文章进行了测试。

• 在2015年的SA部分中进行了部分测试，因此在某些方面是该课程的承认组成部分。

• 通常，问题集中在波动的影响上 - 我认为下降趋势很可能会要求持续折旧的影响。

• 鉴于这对贸易和BOP产生了影响，这可能与BOP相互联系（尽管潜在的也是如此）

3. CAD/BOP – Causes & Consequences

• This appeared in the 2014 Independent Paper (but it didn’t appear in the 2014 HSC) and also appeared in the 2015 Independept Paper (so they are clearly picking it as a potential!)

• It pretty much appears every single year in the paper either in Short Answer or Essays – either as focus only on BOP/CAD, or as part of external stability.

• 鉴于它在2013年和2014年被视为一个简短的答案，因此很可能将其视为2015年的潜在论文问题。

• 考虑到采矿出口，出口价格下跌，TWI和全球需求下降的持续后果，这也是一个主题问题。

• Note, given the role of the $AUD this may end up being combined with an exchange rates essay.

4. Globalization & Free Trade – Impact on Australian Economy

• 自2007年以来，每年都要求自由贸易/保护，通常每年在SA和论文之间进行交替。

• 在2014年，它被要求作为SA使它成为2015年论文中的一篇文章，这很可能使它成为这种趋势。

• There’s also been lots of activity recently in this area with the Liberal governement pursuing Chinese free trade agreement, and recently signing a trans-pacific free trade agreement.

• 结果，我认为本文很可能会审查这一点 - 更有可能将重点放在自由贸易上，而不是保护。因此，澳大利亚经济的自由贸易的优势/缺点。

5.可能 - 国际组织和全球化的作用

• This topic was featured in the CSSA and Independent Trials in 2013 and then it didn’t appear in the 2013 HSC paper… It also hasn’t been examined since 2008 – so it’s fairly under tested.

• 我认为它可能会在2014年出现，但事实并非如此，因此未经测试的时间越长，几率就越高！

• I feel if it is examined they *may* put a spin on it – a severely under tested component of this is the role that international orgs/trade agreements play in shaping global inequalities.

Short Answers

1. Globalisation

• 这已经出现在过去8篇论文中的7篇中 - 在论文或SA中。近年来，它已被作为论文进行了研究，尤其是在2014年作为案例研究论文问题。

• Highly likely there will be some version of globalization in SA – potentially around inequality in the global economy, or the IBC and regional business cycle.

2.微观经济改革

• This topic has appeared in 7 of the 8 past HSC exams – with a growing trend in the last 5 years for it to appear in SA (in it’s different forms – i.e. Labour Market, Deregulation etc)

• It hasn’t been tested on it’s own as MR since 2008. It’s an important part of the course, but given there has been less movement in this space at a Federal level it’s easy to see why it’s been featuring in SA.

• 潜在的可能会有deregulation focus given NSW government deregulation this year of the electricity network (it’s not Federal but still relevant) and ongoing struggles of Australia Post.

• 这样说，2013年对放松管制进行了测试。

3.通货膨胀

• 它出现在SA或论文中的最后8场HSC考试中的5次中出现 - 它没有出现在2008年和2010年。

• 在2013年和2014年，这是一篇论文问题的一部分，并在2012年被最后一次测试为SA，使其具有潜力！

• 给出the generally low inflation rates, combined with heat in the housing market, and potential collapse it’s topical.

4. Monetary

• Monetary on it’s own has never been examined as a SA – it generally always has appeared either on it’s own as an essay (in earlier years 2008-2011 when monetary policy was more topical) or as part of policy mix in SA.

• 鉴于可能会有一篇财政政策论文，我认为我们可能会自行将其视为SA。

5. Possible – Exchange Rates

• This has only ever featured once in 2010 as a SA question. It generally appears ever 2 years however.

• It wasn’t examined last year (one passing reference in SA question) and I think it’s likely to feature somewhere in this paper.

• 要么作为独立论文，要么是关于BOP的文章的一部分，要么是SA问题！

免责声明

• The point of putting these predictions together is to help you prioritize and focus for your study for the HSC Economics exam.
• Obviously, there is no guarantee (or any warranties implied or otherwise) that any of the predictions (despite my best efforts) will be correct and if you rely upon these predictions, you do so at your own risk.
• 因此 - 虽然我建议将重点关注预测的话题并撰写练习论文是明智的，但如果您真的想给自己HSC考试的乐队6的最佳镜头 - 涵盖所有内容，以疯狂的细节（我知道这很明显，但我觉得重申一下很重要！）

See this spreadsheet here自2007年以来，用于分类论文问题和简短答案问题。

All the best for your HSC!